Demand for electricity in Toronto could grow dramatically by 2044 — driven by rapid economic and population growth
Energy efficiency and local generation will be a part of the solution to meeting future electricity needs. Torontonians have already made major strides in reducing energy use. Over the last 15 years, they have reduced peak electricity use by enough to power a city the size of London Ontario.
And there’s even more potential to be tapped into. That’s why the IESO has expanded Save on Energy incentives to help Ontarians reduce energy use from the grid - with home upgrades, heat pumps and solar rooftop panels. Business can take advantage of Save on Energy programs too. Toronto’s IRRP will look at how additional energy efficiency and local generation can contribute to meeting electricity needs.
Visit www.saveonenergy.ca.
Current Status
Scoping the needs: 2024
Developing solutions: 2025
Making recommendations: 2025Toronto is its own planning region and relies on significant amounts of electricity delivered from across the province, with transmission corridors serving the city as well as one large generator ‐ the Portlands Energy Centre.
As the city grows, demand for electricity could increase dramatically by 2044, which is much faster than other parts of the province.
With input from stakeholders, Indigenous communities and municipalities, the IESO has a planning process underway that will result in a series of options to both meet growing needs and upgrade Toronto's electricity infrastructure.
The plan will also consider the city's economic and community development plans, some of which we heard through feedback from our engagement sessions. These development plans include the pockets of growth in Downsview, the Golden Mile and the Port Lands, as well as TransformTO, the City of Toronto's net zero strategy.
And finally, it will assess the impact of reducing reliance on Portlands Energy Centre, which serves 12 per cent of the city's power needs during hot summer days and also serves broader GTA. Portlands is the only main source of supply in Toronto itself, ramping production up and down to meet changes in energy consumption. It can also restore local power supply in the event of a wide-scale power outage. Today, the number of options available to reducing the reliance on Portlands is limited by the capacity of existing transmission infrastructure.
The IESO works with Hydro One and Toronto Hydro, with feedback from communities and stakeholders, to develop recommendations that address the specific needs of the city.
Draft Recommendations for Toronto
A suite of draft recommendations have been developed that address the specific needs of each part of the city. The draft recommendations include building and upgrading transmission infrastructure, battery energy storage facilities, and launching more energy-efficiency programs targeted to Toronto electricity consumers.
Meeting Toronto’s growth and maintaining reliability in the Toronto area will require bringing more electricity from outside the city into the downtown core via a new transmission line. The map below shows the recommended underwater line from Bowmanville to the Hearn area, as well as the other draft recommendations for the city.
Phase 1 - Understand Future Needs
The IESO has assessed Toronto's electricity needs over the long term. A demand forecast for the city has been developed, showing that electricity use could double over the next 20 years.
It is also focusing on specific areas of the grid that need upgrades, such as the existing transmission corridors in Etobicoke, where transmission infrastructure near the Kipling TTC station brings electricity in from the west of the province, as well as in Leaside and the Finch corridors, among others.
The IESO has also launched a study into the potential contribution for additional energy efficiency and local generation to reduce the amount of electricity needed from the provincial grid. This research will inform the solutions that will be proposed later in the process.
And finally, the assessment is looking at the impact of reducing reliance on the Portlands Energy Centre given its pivotal role in maintaining reliability in Toronto and surrounding areas.
Phase 2 - Develop Solutions
With Toronto's needs understood, the IESO has developed potential solutions to address those needs. Solutions are evaluated based on the type of need and criteria such as technical feasibility and cost effectiveness.
At this phase of the Plan, the IESO has completed an initial analysis and have identified transmission and complementary solutions (i.e., energy efficiency and local energy generation) for further technical and economic evaluation.
Analysis has shown that due to growing energy demand, large scale energy needs are emerging on the system. For example, several existing transmission stations and lines will reach capacity, and these large-scale needs will require new transmission. At the same time, a reduced reliance on Portlands Energy Centre (PEC) will create an immediate reliability concern as there would not be enough generation available to meet electricity needs. To maintain reliability, a new transmission line into the eastern part of the city will be needed. Three potential wire options are currently under consideration. The IESO will continue to study transmission options and complementary solutions such as energy efficiency and locally-based storage, to identify a recommended approach to meet the needs across the City. Evaluation criteria include technical feasibility and providing the best value for money.
For more information, see the Options Screening presentation, and the Local Achievable Study Draft Findings presentation.
Phase 3 - Make Recommendations (2025)
At this phase of the plan, the IESO has evaluated the options and developed recommendations that will improve reliability and enable growth for Toronto. The plan’s draft recommendations include:
- Incremental opportunities for energy efficiency, demand response and customer-sited generation programs across the city to help manage demand and balance the grid
- New battery storage facilities to support the grid during peak times and outages
- Upgrades of key existing infrastructure to boost reliability and capacity
- Develop new or expanded transmission stations to connect new communities
- Add a third supply line into Toronto to enable the most long-term growth, diversify Toronto's electricity supply, enhance resilience, and enable future generation connection
After the final report is published, implementation planning will begin for infrastructure projects and program development by the responsible organization – either the IESO, the local utility or the transmitter.
The IESO is committed to providing opportunities for Torontonians and others to learn more and get involved.
You can stay informed about the progress of this plan and participate in discussions on the IESO website, which offers detailed planning documents, videos of webinar sessions, and other information, including:
- Reliability in Toronto: A backgrounder providing an overview of Toronto's electricity needs.
- Toronto Electricity Plan: Detailed information and updates about the IESO's planning process for the city of Toronto. Here you can subscribe for updates and learn more about the IESO's webinars and feedback process.
- Presentation (December 5) on electricity demand forecasts for Toronto and how they impact future system needs. Feedback on the webinar is also posted on the IESO website.
- Presentation and Video (July 10) provides an update on the options that are most feasible for Toronto. Feedback on this webinar is posted on the IESO website.
- Presentation and Video (August 21) provides an update on the draft findings from the Local Achievable Potential Study. Feedback on this webinar is posted on the IESO website.
- Presentation and Video (September 25) provides an update on the options analysis and draft recommendations for Toronto. Feedback on this webinar is posted on the IESO website.
Learn more about Energy Efficiency
As the electricity system operator, the IESO also relies on conservation to help manage the grid and includes energy-efficiency targets in its planning.
Through Save on Energy, it currently offers two programs in north Etobicoke that help alleviate electricity demand while upgrades to the local grid take place. CoolSaver offers incentives to residential customers living in Richview South for air conditioner tune-ups and replacements, dehumidifiers and smart thermostats. In the same area, Biz Energy Saver offers incentives to businesses and building owners for energy-saving upgrades.
Torontonians can also take advantage of Peak Perks, which rewards homeowners who have smart thermostats for reducing their energy during peak summer days.
For more information about energy efficiency incentives in Ontario, visit www.saveonenergy.ca
We'd like to know your thoughts about GTA's future electricity needs.
Learn more
If you live or work in the GTA, the IESO offers more information about the region’s electricity needs. Learn more about the IESO’s planning process.